Viewing archive of Friday, 12 February 2021

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Feb 12 2205 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 43 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Feb 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (13 Feb, 14 Feb, 15 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 360 km/s at 11/2257Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 12/1905Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 12/1848Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (13 Feb, 14 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (15 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Feb to 15 Feb
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Feb 072
  Predicted   13 Feb-15 Feb 072/072/072
  90 Day Mean        12 Feb 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Feb  002/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Feb  003/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb  010/012-009/012-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Feb to 15 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm01%10%30%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm20%25%20%
Major-severe storm15%40%65%

All times in UTC

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