Viewing archive of Wednesday, 10 February 2021

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Feb 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 41 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Feb 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (11 Feb, 12 Feb, 13 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 453 km/s at 10/0109Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 10/0042Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 10/1002Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 304 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (11 Feb, 12 Feb, 13 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Feb to 13 Feb
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Feb 074
  Predicted   11 Feb-13 Feb 072/072/072
  90 Day Mean        10 Feb 083

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Feb  003/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Feb  004/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Feb-13 Feb  005/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Feb to 13 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm15%15%15%

All times in UTC

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