Viewing archive of Friday, 15 January 2021

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Jan 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 15 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jan 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (16 Jan, 17 Jan, 18 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 324 km/s at 14/2109Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 14/2121Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 15/1814Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 223 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (16 Jan), quiet to active levels on day two (17 Jan) and unsettled levels on day three (18 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jan to 18 Jan
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Jan 073
  Predicted   16 Jan-18 Jan 075/075/075
  90 Day Mean        15 Jan 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jan  001/001
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Jan  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan  005/005-009/010-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jan to 18 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%25%35%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm20%25%25%
Major-severe storm20%30%40%

All times in UTC

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