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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Nov 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 311 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Nov 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 06/1522Z from Region 2781 (S23E29). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (07 Nov, 08 Nov, 09 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 507 km/s at 06/0838Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 06/0413Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 06/0417Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1277 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (07 Nov) and quiet levels on days two and three (08 Nov, 09 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Nov to 09 Nov
Class M15%15%15%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 Nov 094
  Predicted   07 Nov-09 Nov 094/094/094
  90 Day Mean        06 Nov 073

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Nov  003/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Nov  007/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 Nov-09 Nov  008/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Nov to 09 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%20%
Minor storm25%20%20%
Major-severe storm25%10%10%

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