Viewing archive of Monday, 31 August 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Aug 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 244 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Aug 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (01 Sep, 02 Sep, 03 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 608 km/s at 31/0841Z. Total IMF
reached 8 nT at 31/1032Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 31/1025Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 3504 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (01 Sep, 02 Sep) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (03 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Sep to 03 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Aug 070 Predicted 01 Sep-03 Sep 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 31 Aug 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Aug 008/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Aug 021/029 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Sep-03 Sep 013/015-011/012-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Sep to 03 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 50% | 40% |
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