Viewing archive of Friday, 7 August 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Aug 07 2235 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 220 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Aug 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (08
Aug, 09 Aug, 10 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 502 km/s at 06/2244Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
07/1113Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
06/2327Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1683 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (08 Aug) and quiet levels
on days two and three (09 Aug, 10 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Aug to 10 Aug
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Aug 074 Predicted 08 Aug-10 Aug 073/073/071 90 Day Mean 07 Aug 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Aug 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Aug 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Aug-10 Aug 008/008-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Aug to 10 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 10% | 10% |
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