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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Jul 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 209 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jul 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (28 Jul, 29 Jul, 30 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 431 km/s at 27/1211Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 27/1810Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 27/0448Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 423 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (28 Jul, 29 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (30 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Jul to 30 Jul
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 Jul 071
  Predicted   28 Jul-30 Jul 070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        27 Jul 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jul  003/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 Jul  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 28 Jul-30 Jul  007/008-007/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jul to 30 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm25%25%20%
Major-severe storm20%20%10%

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