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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Jul 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 206 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jul 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (25 Jul, 26 Jul, 27 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 382 km/s at 24/1701Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 24/0559Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 24/0550Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 221 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (25 Jul), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (26 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (27 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Jul to 27 Jul
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Jul 070
  Predicted   25 Jul-27 Jul 070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        24 Jul 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jul  004/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Jul  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Jul-27 Jul  011/012-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jul to 27 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%15%10%
Minor storm15%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%20%
Minor storm25%25%20%
Major-severe storm50%20%10%

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