Viewing archive of Tuesday, 21 July 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Jul 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 203 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jul 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (22 Jul, 23 Jul, 24 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 368 km/s at 21/1035Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
21/0820Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
21/0305Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 268 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (22 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (23 Jul, 24 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Jul to 24 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jul 070 Predicted 22 Jul-24 Jul 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 21 Jul 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jul 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jul 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jul-24 Jul 006/005-006/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jul to 24 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 20% | 20% |
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