Viewing archive of Saturday, 11 July 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Jul 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 193 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jul 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (12 Jul, 13 Jul, 14 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 657 km/s at 11/0230Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
11/1540Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
11/1719Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 164 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (12 Jul), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (13 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day three (14 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jul to 14 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jul 069 Predicted 12 Jul-14 Jul 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 11 Jul 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jul 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jul 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul 007/008-009/008-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jul to 14 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 25% | 40% |
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