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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Jul 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 187 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jul 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (06 Jul, 07 Jul, 08 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 530 km/s at 05/0737Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 04/2254Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 05/0359Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 151 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (06 Jul) and quiet levels on days two and three (07 Jul, 08 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Jul to 08 Jul
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Jul 069
  Predicted   06 Jul-08 Jul 069/069/069
  90 Day Mean        05 Jul 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jul  009/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Jul  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Jul-08 Jul  008/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jul to 08 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm20%15%15%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%

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