Viewing archive of Saturday, 4 July 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Jul 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 186 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jul 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (05 Jul, 06 Jul, 07 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 434 km/s at 04/2007Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 04/1833Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
04/1856Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 145 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (05 Jul) and quiet levels
on days two and three (06 Jul, 07 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Jul to 07 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Jul 070 Predicted 05 Jul-07 Jul 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 04 Jul 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jul 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jul 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jul-07 Jul 009/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jul to 07 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 10% | 10% |
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