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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Apr 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 111 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Apr 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (21 Apr, 22 Apr, 23 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 388 km/s at 20/0826Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 20/1355Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -15 nT at 20/0810Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 185 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (21 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (22 Apr, 23 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Apr to 23 Apr
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Apr 068
  Predicted   21 Apr-23 Apr 069/069/069
  90 Day Mean        20 Apr 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Apr  002/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Apr  015/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Apr-23 Apr  011/014-007/008-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Apr to 23 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%15%20%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%25%25%
Major-severe storm40%25%30%

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