Viewing archive of Tuesday, 18 February 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Feb 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 49 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Feb 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (19 Feb, 20 Feb, 21 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 417 km/s at 18/1509Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 18/1403Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at
18/1404Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 183 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (19 Feb), unsettled
to active levels on day two (20 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (21
Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Feb to 21 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Feb 071 Predicted 19 Feb-21 Feb 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 18 Feb 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Feb 005/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Feb 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Feb-21 Feb 015/022-015/018-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Feb to 21 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 50% | 25% |
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