Viewing archive of Saturday, 15 February 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Feb 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 46 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (16 Feb, 17 Feb, 18 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 366 km/s at 15/0942Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 15/1706Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
15/0952Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 799 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (16 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (17 Feb, 18 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Feb to 18 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Feb 071 Predicted 16 Feb-18 Feb 071/071/071 90 Day Mean 15 Feb 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb 003/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Feb 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb 006/005-008/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb to 18 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 30% | 25% |
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