Viewing archive of Wednesday, 12 February 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Feb 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 43 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Feb 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (13 Feb, 14 Feb, 15 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 430 km/s at 12/0923Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
12/0816Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
12/0839Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1136 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (13 Feb, 14 Feb, 15
Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Feb to 15 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Feb 072 Predicted 13 Feb-15 Feb 072/072/072 90 Day Mean 12 Feb 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Feb 006/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Feb 007/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Feb to 15 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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