Viewing archive of Sunday, 9 February 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Feb 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 40 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Feb 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (10 Feb, 11 Feb, 12 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 467 km/s at 09/0004Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 09/0805Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
09/0405Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2854 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (10 Feb), quiet to active levels on day
two (11 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (12 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Feb to 12 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Feb 071 Predicted 10 Feb-12 Feb 071/071/071 90 Day Mean 09 Feb 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Feb 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Feb 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Feb-12 Feb 005/005-010/012-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Feb to 12 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 40% | 30% |
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