Viewing archive of Thursday, 6 February 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Feb 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 37 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Feb 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (07 Feb, 08 Feb, 09 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 592 km/s at 06/2051Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 06/0512Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
06/0516Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 248 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (07 Feb), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (08 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (09 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Feb to 09 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Feb 071 Predicted 07 Feb-09 Feb 071/071/071 90 Day Mean 06 Feb 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Feb 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Feb 014/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Feb-09 Feb 012/012-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Feb to 09 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 20% | 10% |
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