Viewing archive of Wednesday, 5 February 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Feb 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 36 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Feb 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (06 Feb, 07 Feb, 08 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 398 km/s at 05/0705Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
05/0434Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
05/0340Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 269 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (06 Feb), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (07 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (08 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Feb to 08 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Feb 071 Predicted 06 Feb-08 Feb 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 05 Feb 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Feb 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Feb 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Feb-08 Feb 009/012-009/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Feb to 08 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 30% | 10% |
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