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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Feb 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 35 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Feb 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (05 Feb, 06 Feb, 07 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 388 km/s at 04/1912Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 04/1820Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 04/0219Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 654 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (05 Feb), quiet to active levels on day two (06 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (07 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Feb to 07 Feb
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Feb 070
  Predicted   05 Feb-07 Feb 070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        04 Feb 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Feb  003/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Feb  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Feb-07 Feb  005/005-009/012-009/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Feb to 07 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%30%25%
Minor storm01%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%30%30%
Major-severe storm10%40%30%

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