Viewing archive of Saturday, 1 February 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Feb 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 32 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Feb 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (02 Feb, 03 Feb, 04 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 507 km/s at 01/1028Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
01/2009Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
01/2009Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 403 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (02 Feb,
03 Feb, 04 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Feb to 04 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Feb 073 Predicted 02 Feb-04 Feb 071/070/070 90 Day Mean 01 Feb 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jan 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Feb 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Feb-04 Feb 006/006-006/006-006/006
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Feb to 04 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
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