Viewing archive of Thursday, 9 January 2020

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Jan 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 9 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jan 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (10 Jan, 11 Jan, 12 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 1182 km/s at 09/0742Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 09/0324Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 09/0501Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 273 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (10 Jan) and quiet levels on days two and three (11 Jan, 12 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Jan to 12 Jan
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Jan 074
  Predicted   10 Jan-12 Jan 074/074/074
  90 Day Mean        09 Jan 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jan  004/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Jan  009/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Jan-12 Jan  007/008-006/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jan to 12 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%05%05%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%15%15%
Major-severe storm25%10%10%

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