Viewing archive of Sunday, 5 January 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Jan 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 5 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jan 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (06 Jan, 07 Jan, 08 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 488 km/s at 05/2018Z. Total IMF reached 14
nT at 05/1743Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -14 nT at
05/1745Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 245 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (06 Jan, 08
Jan) and quiet levels on day two (07 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Jan to 08 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Jan 072 Predicted 06 Jan-08 Jan 072/072/072 90 Day Mean 05 Jan 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jan 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jan 007/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jan-08 Jan 008/008-006/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jan to 08 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 05% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 10% | 25% |
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