Viewing archive of Tuesday, 29 October 2019

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Oct 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 302 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Oct 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (30 Oct, 31 Oct, 01 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 551 km/s at 29/0712Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 29/2024Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 29/1636Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 38548 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (30 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (31 Oct, 01 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Oct to 01 Nov
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Oct 069
  Predicted   30 Oct-01 Nov 069/069/069
  90 Day Mean        29 Oct 067

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Oct  008/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Oct  008/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 30 Oct-01 Nov  008/010-007/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Oct to 01 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%15%15%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%25%25%
Major-severe storm35%20%20%

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