Viewing archive of Saturday, 26 October 2019

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Oct 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 299 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Oct 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (27 Oct, 28 Oct, 29 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 695 km/s at 26/1623Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 26/1153Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 26/1154Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 20986 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (27 Oct) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (28 Oct, 29 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Oct to 29 Oct
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 Oct 069
  Predicted   27 Oct-29 Oct 068/068/068
  90 Day Mean        26 Oct 067

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Oct  029/026
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Oct  018/027
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 Oct-29 Oct  015/018-012/015-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Oct to 29 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%25%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%30%25%
Major-severe storm40%40%30%

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