Viewing archive of Friday, 11 October 2019

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Oct 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 284 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Oct 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (12 Oct, 13 Oct, 14 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 512 km/s at 11/1347Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 11/0217Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 11/1135Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 514 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and three (12 Oct, 14 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (13 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Oct to 14 Oct
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Oct 069
  Predicted   12 Oct-14 Oct 068/068/068
  90 Day Mean        11 Oct 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Oct  010/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Oct  006/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct  006/005-008/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Oct to 14 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%15%15%
Minor storm01%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%25%20%
Major-severe storm05%25%15%

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