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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Oct 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 283 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Oct 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (11 Oct, 12 Oct, 13 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 697 km/s at 10/0636Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 09/2135Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 10/0521Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 518 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (11 Oct, 12 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (13 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Oct to 13 Oct
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Oct 068
  Predicted   11 Oct-13 Oct 068/068/068
  90 Day Mean        10 Oct 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Oct  007/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Oct  011/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Oct-13 Oct  006/005-006/005-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Oct to 13 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%05%15%
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%25%
Major-severe storm10%05%25%

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