Viewing archive of Thursday, 10 October 2019
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Oct 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 283 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Oct 2019IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (11 Oct, 12 Oct, 13 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 697 km/s at 10/0636Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 09/2135Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
10/0521Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 518 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (11 Oct, 12 Oct) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (13 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Oct to 13 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Oct 068 Predicted 11 Oct-13 Oct 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 10 Oct 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Oct 007/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Oct 011/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Oct-13 Oct 006/005-006/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Oct to 13 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 25% |
Latest news
Monday, 18 November 2019 - 20:12 UTC
Coronal hole faces Earth
Wednesday, 13 November 2019 - 18:02 UTC
Cycle 25 sunspot region, Coronal hole faces Earth
Tuesday, 22 October 2019 - 14:34 UTC
Coronal hole faces Earth, G1 watch
Latest forum messages
- Synoptic Magnetograms; SC24 Minimum Forecasting 22
- Ap & aa Indices and Solar Minimum 42
- Strange "Wave" Phenomenon on the Sun 10
- Kp ZERO 36 Hours 2
- "High" Solar Wind Density 3
Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare: | 2017/09/10 | X8.2 |
| Last M-flare: | 2017/10/20 | M1.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm: | 2019/10/26 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Number of spotless days in 2019: | 262 | |
| Current stretch spotless days: | 35 | |