Viewing archive of Thursday, 10 October 2019
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Oct 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 283 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Oct 2019IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (11 Oct, 12 Oct, 13 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 697 km/s at 10/0636Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 09/2135Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
10/0521Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 518 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (11 Oct, 12 Oct) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (13 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Oct to 13 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Oct 068 Predicted 11 Oct-13 Oct 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 10 Oct 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Oct 007/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Oct 011/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Oct-13 Oct 006/005-006/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Oct to 13 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 25% |
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare: | 2017/09/10 | X8.2 |
| Last M-flare: | 2017/10/20 | M1.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm: | 2020/04/20 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Number of spotless days in 2020: | 120 | |
| Current stretch spotless days: | 28 | |