Viewing archive of Friday, 27 September 2019

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Sep 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 270 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Sep 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (28 Sep, 29 Sep, 30 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 722 km/s at 27/2030Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 27/1327Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 27/1323Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 169 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to major storm levels on day one (28 Sep), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (29 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day three (30 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Sep to 30 Sep
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 Sep 066
  Predicted   28 Sep-30 Sep 067/067/067
  90 Day Mean        27 Sep 067

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 Sep  002/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 Sep  013/019
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 28 Sep-30 Sep  030/045-015/020-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Sep to 30 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%35%30%
Minor storm40%25%10%
Major-severe storm20%10%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%10%15%
Minor storm20%20%25%
Major-severe storm75%60%40%

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