Viewing archive of Saturday, 14 September 2019

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Sep 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 257 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Sep 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (15 Sep, 16 Sep, 17 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 512 km/s at 13/2118Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3102 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (15 Sep, 16 Sep, 17 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Sep to 17 Sep
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Sep 069
  Predicted   15 Sep-17 Sep 068/068/068
  90 Day Mean        14 Sep 067

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Sep  008/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Sep  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep  006/006-006/006-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Sep to 17 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%15%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm10%10%20%

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