Viewing archive of Friday, 6 September 2019

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Sep 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 249 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Sep 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (07 Sep, 08 Sep, 09 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 582 km/s at 06/0415Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 06/0856Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 06/0245Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 16364 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (07 Sep, 08 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (09 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Sep to 09 Sep
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 Sep 069
  Predicted   07 Sep-09 Sep 068/068/068
  90 Day Mean        06 Sep 067

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Sep  011/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Sep  009/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 Sep-09 Sep  007/008-009/008-004/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Sep to 09 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%15%
Minor storm25%25%15%
Major-severe storm15%15%10%

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