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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Sep 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 245 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Sep 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (03 Sep, 04 Sep, 05 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 769 km/s at 01/2354Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 01/2116Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 01/2255Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 61291 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (03 Sep) and quiet levels on days two and three (04 Sep, 05 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Sep to 05 Sep
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Sep 069
  Predicted   03 Sep-05 Sep 069/069/069
  90 Day Mean        02 Sep 067

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Sep  033/049
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Sep  019/022
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 Sep-05 Sep  009/010-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Sep to 05 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%15%15%
Minor storm10%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%20%20%
Major-severe storm40%20%20%

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