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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Sep 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 244 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Sep 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (02 Sep, 03 Sep, 04 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at active to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 835 km/s at 01/0106Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 01/1508Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 01/1332Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 53007 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (02 Sep), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (03 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (04 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Sep to 04 Sep
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Sep 067
  Predicted   02 Sep-04 Sep 067/067/067
  90 Day Mean        01 Sep 067

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 31 Aug  029/040
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Sep  031/048
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Sep-04 Sep  020/024-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Sep to 04 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%15%15%
Minor storm20%05%01%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm25%25%20%
Major-severe storm55%20%20%

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