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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Aug 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 236 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Aug 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (25 Aug, 26 Aug, 27 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 433 km/s at 24/0545Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 482 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (25 Aug) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (26 Aug, 27 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Aug to 27 Aug
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Aug 066
  Predicted   25 Aug-27 Aug 067/067/067
  90 Day Mean        24 Aug 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Aug  004/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Aug  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Aug-27 Aug  005/005-007/010-014/016

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Aug to 27 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%35%35%
Minor storm01%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%15%
Minor storm10%35%20%
Major-severe storm05%35%30%

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