Viewing archive of Monday, 12 August 2019

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Aug 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 224 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Aug 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (13 Aug, 14 Aug, 15 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 483 km/s at 12/1259Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 12/0825Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 12/0854Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5159 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (13 Aug, 14 Aug, 15 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Aug to 15 Aug
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Aug 067
  Predicted   13 Aug-15 Aug 068/068/068
  90 Day Mean        12 Aug 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Aug  007/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Aug  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 13 Aug-15 Aug  006/005-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Aug to 15 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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