Viewing archive of Wednesday, 7 August 2019

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Aug 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 219 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Aug 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (08 Aug, 09 Aug, 10 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 622 km/s at 07/0042Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 07/1206Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 07/2052Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 26137 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (08 Aug, 09 Aug, 10 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Aug to 10 Aug
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 Aug 068
  Predicted   08 Aug-10 Aug 068/068/068
  90 Day Mean        07 Aug 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 Aug  010/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 Aug  006/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 08 Aug-10 Aug  005/005-006/005-005/006

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Aug to 10 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm20%15%15%

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