Viewing archive of Monday, 5 August 2019

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Aug 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 217 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Aug 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (06 Aug, 07 Aug, 08 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 752 km/s at 05/1723Z. Total IMF reached 23 nT at 05/0857Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -21 nT at 05/0701Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (06 Aug), quiet to active levels on day two (07 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (08 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Aug to 08 Aug
Class M 01%01%01%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Aug 068
  Predicted    06 Aug-08 Aug 068/068/068
  90 Day Mean        05 Aug 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Aug  006/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Aug  029/037
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 06 Aug-08 Aug  020/025-012/015-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Aug to 08 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%30%15%
Minor storm 25%10%05%
Major-severe storm 05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%15%15%
Minor storm 20%30%25%
Major-severe storm 65%40%25%

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