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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Jul 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 202 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jul 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (22 Jul, 23 Jul, 24 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 368 km/s at 21/0423Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 21/1834Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 21/0440Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1363 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (22 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (23 Jul, 24 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Jul to 24 Jul
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Jul 068
  Predicted   22 Jul-24 Jul 067/067/067
  90 Day Mean        21 Jul 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jul  005/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Jul  005/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 Jul-24 Jul  006/005-007/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jul to 24 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm01%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%25%25%
Major-severe storm10%25%25%

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