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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Jul 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 186 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jul 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (06 Jul, 07 Jul, 08 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 457 km/s at 05/1444Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 04/2233Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 05/0110Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (06 Jul) and quiet levels on days two and three (07 Jul, 08 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Jul to 08 Jul
Class M 01%01%01%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Jul 067
  Predicted    06 Jul-08 Jul 067/067/067
  90 Day Mean        05 Jul 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jul  008/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Jul  007/006
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 06 Jul-08 Jul  007/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jul to 08 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%10%10%
Minor storm 10%05%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm 25%20%15%
Major-severe storm 25%20%15%

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