Viewing archive of Wednesday, 15 May 2019
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 May 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 135 Issued at 2200Z on 15 May 2019IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
15/1924Z from Region 2741 (N05W44). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (16 May) and
expected to be very low on days two and three (17 May, 18 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 498 km/s at 14/2113Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at
15/1921Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached 0 nT at
15/1811Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1254 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (16 May), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (17 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (18 May).
III. Event Probabilities 16 May to 18 May
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 May 074 Predicted 16 May-18 May 072/072/072 90 Day Mean 15 May 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 May 023/038 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 May 009/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 May-18 May 018/032-015/020-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 May to 18 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 30% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 15% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 75% | 70% | 25% |
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