Viewing archive of Tuesday, 14 May 2019
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 May 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 14 May 2019IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (15 May, 16
May) and expected to be very low on day three (17 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 573 km/s at 14/0833Z. Total IMF
reached 15 nT at 14/0620Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-15 nT at 14/0617Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 1485 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (15 May), unsettled
to major storm levels on day two (16 May) and quiet to minor storm
levels on day three (17 May).
III. Event Probabilities 15 May to 17 May
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 May 074 Predicted 15 May-17 May 074/072/072 90 Day Mean 14 May 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 May 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 May 025/036 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May 018/028-020/032-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 May to 17 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 35% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 25% | 15% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 75% | 70% |
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