Viewing archive of Monday, 6 May 2019

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 May 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 126 Issued at 2200Z on 06 May 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at 06/0510Z from Region 2740 (N07E40). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (07 May, 08 May, 09 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 403 km/s at 05/2105Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 06/1427Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 06/1921Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1094 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (07 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (08 May, 09 May).
III. Event Probabilities 07 May to 09 May
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 May 076
  Predicted   07 May-09 May 076/078/078
  90 Day Mean        06 May 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 May  004/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 May  006/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 May-09 May  010/012-008/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 May to 09 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%20%
Minor storm30%30%30%
Major-severe storm30%25%25%

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