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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Apr 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 110 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Apr 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (21 Apr, 22 Apr, 23 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 363 km/s at 20/1956Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 19/2114Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 20/1903Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 406 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (21 Apr, 22 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (23 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Apr to 23 Apr
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Apr 070
  Predicted   21 Apr-23 Apr 070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        20 Apr 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Apr  004/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Apr  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Apr-23 Apr  006/005-006/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Apr to 23 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm20%20%30%
Major-severe storm15%20%20%

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