Viewing archive of Thursday, 18 April 2019

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Apr 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 108 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Apr 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (19 Apr, 20 Apr, 21 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 481 km/s at 18/1728Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 18/0933Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 18/1738Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 733 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (19 Apr, 20 Apr, 21 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Apr to 21 Apr
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Apr 075
  Predicted   19 Apr-21 Apr 075/070/070
  90 Day Mean        18 Apr 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Apr  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Apr  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Apr-21 Apr  005/005-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Apr to 21 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm20%20%15%

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