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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Apr 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 101 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Apr 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (12 Apr, 13 Apr, 14 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 468 km/s at 10/2237Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2706 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (12 Apr, 13 Apr) and quiet levels on day three (14 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Apr to 14 Apr
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Apr 079
  Predicted   12 Apr-14 Apr 078/078/078
  90 Day Mean        11 Apr 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Apr  010/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Apr  010/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Apr-14 Apr  010/012-011/012-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Apr to 14 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%30%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%15%
Minor storm30%35%20%
Major-severe storm35%30%20%

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