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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Apr 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 100 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Apr 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 Apr, 12 Apr, 13 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 489 km/s at 10/0234Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 10/0630Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 10/0151Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3730 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (11 Apr, 12 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (13 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Apr to 13 Apr
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Apr 078
  Predicted   11 Apr-13 Apr 078/078/078
  90 Day Mean        10 Apr 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Apr  011/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Apr  014/017
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Apr-13 Apr  013/014-010/012-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Apr to 13 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm35%30%30%
Major-severe storm40%35%25%

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