Viewing archive of Saturday, 6 April 2019
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Apr 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 96 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Apr 2019IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (07 Apr, 08 Apr, 09 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 530 km/s at 05/2242Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 13361 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (07 Apr) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (08 Apr, 09 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Apr to 09 Apr
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Apr 074 Predicted 07 Apr-09 Apr 074/074/074 90 Day Mean 06 Apr 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Apr 010/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Apr 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Apr-09 Apr 010/012-009/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Apr to 09 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 25% | 30% |
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