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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Mar 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 84 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Mar 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (26 Mar, 27 Mar, 28 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 347 km/s at 25/0742Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 24/2353Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 25/0117Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1146 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (26 Mar) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (27 Mar, 28 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Mar to 28 Mar
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Mar 071
  Predicted   26 Mar-28 Mar 071/070/068
  90 Day Mean        25 Mar 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Mar  003/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Mar  006/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Mar-28 Mar  008/008-010/014-013/016

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Mar to 28 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%35%35%
Minor storm05%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm25%25%25%
Major-severe storm25%55%55%

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