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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Mar 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 81 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Mar 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 22/0514Z from Region 2736 (N08W62). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Mar, 24 Mar, 25 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 342 km/s at 22/0129Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 820 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (23 Mar), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (24 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (25 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Mar to 25 Mar
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton05%05%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Mar 082
  Predicted   23 Mar-25 Mar 082/082/077
  90 Day Mean        22 Mar 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Mar  002/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Mar  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Mar-25 Mar  015/024-020/025-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Mar to 25 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%40%10%
Minor storm40%30%01%
Major-severe storm20%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%05%15%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm75%70%20%

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