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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Mar 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 80 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Mar 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 21/0312Z from Region 2736 (N09W48). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (22 Mar, 23 Mar, 24 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 385 km/s at 20/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 737 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (22 Mar), quiet to major storm levels on day two (23 Mar) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (24 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Mar to 24 Mar
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Mar 080
  Predicted   22 Mar-24 Mar 080/080/077
  90 Day Mean        21 Mar 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Mar  005/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Mar  003/003
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 Mar-24 Mar  005/005-015/024-020/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Mar to 24 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm01%40%30%
Major-severe storm01%20%05%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm15%75%70%

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