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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Mar 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 74 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Mar 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (16 Mar, 17 Mar, 18 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 414 km/s at 15/1358Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 15/0601Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 15/0124Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 276 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (16 Mar, 17 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (18 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Mar to 18 Mar
Class M 01%01%01%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Mar 070
  Predicted    16 Mar-18 Mar 070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        15 Mar 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Mar  006/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Mar  007/008
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar  007/008-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Mar to 18 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%15%10%
Minor storm 05%05%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 25%25%20%
Major-severe storm 20%25%15%

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